Ark Invest s Bitcoin Valuation Framework: A Path to Seven-Figure Prices

Ark Investment Management s recent report, Big Ideas 2026, outlines a framework suggesting that Bitcoin s potential to reach seven-figure valuations is driven by adoption rates and its fixed supply. The report emphasizes that current Bitcoin prices are an anomaly when viewed through the lens of institutional demand, its role as digital gold, and sovereign interest.
The central chart in Ark s analysis presents three scenarios for Bitcoin s market capitalization: bear, base, and bull cases. In the base case, institutional investment is projected to contribute approximately 5 trillion, assuming a 2.5 penetration of a 200 trillion global market portfolio excluding gold . Digital gold demand adds about 9.8 trillion, with Bitcoin expected to capture 40 of the 24.4 trillion gold market. Other factors include 339 billion from emerging market demand, 375 billion from nation-state treasuries, 172 billion from corporate treasuries, and around 262 billion from on-chain financial services projected to grow at a 40 annual rate.
Using these figures, Ark estimates a market cap of 16 trillion would imply a Bitcoin price of nearly 760,000. In a bear case scenario with a total value of about 8 trillion, the implied price would be around 380,000. Conversely, in a bull case where market capitalization exceeds 25 trillion, the implied price could surpass 1.2 million per Bitcoin.
Cathie Wood, Ark s founder and CEO, recently revised the firm s long-term bull case for Bitcoin. She lowered the 2030 price target from 1.5 million to 1.2 million due to the rapid rise of stablecoins displacing Bitcoin in global payments, particularly in emerging markets. Wood stated,
Given what s happening to stablecoins, which are serving emerging markets in a way that we thought bitcoin would, I think we could take maybe 300,000 off of that bullish case just for stablecoins.
Despite this adjustment, Wood remains optimistic about Bitcoin s core value as digital gold. She argues that Bitcoin s mathematical scarcity and decentralized nature reinforce its position as a global store of value and a strategic asset for institutional portfolios, even as its transactional use cases shift towards stablecoins.