Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin s Future: Two Diverging Paths Ahead of 60K

Bitcoin is currently at a critical 60,000 threshold, with Arthur Hayes, co-founder of Bitmex, outlining two potential scenarios for its future. In his February 17 essay, he discusses the possibility of a completed correction leading to a price surge, or a deeper decline if equity markets falter and liquidity tightens.
There are two scenarios for bitcoin and shitcoins. Either bitcoin s dump from 126,000 to 60,000 was the entire downward move and stonks will catch up, or bitcoin will dump further as stocks meet their maker.
Hayes emphasizes the importance of limiting leverage in the current market. He describes bitcoin as a fiat liquidity fire alarm, noting its divergence from the Nasdaq due to increasing credit stress linked to AI-driven job displacement.
The surge in fiat credit creation pumps bitcoin decisively off its lows, and the future expectation of increased fiat creation to save the banking system propels bitcoin to a new all-time high.
Beyond price predictions, Hayes addresses the significant labor disruptions caused by artificial intelligence and their impact on credit markets. He warns of rising defaults at smaller banks that could lead to emergency liquidity measures from policymakers.