Bitcoin s Four-Year Cycle Faces Scrutiny After 2025 s Unprecedented Close

Bitcoin s traditional four-year market cycle is under scrutiny following its 2025 performance, which marked the first time a post-halving year ended in the red. This cycle, linked to Bitcoin s halving events that reduce mining rewards, has historically preceded significant price increases. Previous post-halving years, such as 2013, 2017, and 2021, saw substantial annual gains.
However, in 2025, despite reaching intraday highs earlier in the year, Bitcoin closed December down about 6 from its January opening price. This deviation from the established pattern has sparked discussions in crypto forums and social media about the reliability of the four-year cycle. Crypto influencer Lark Davis remarked,
For the first time in 14 years, Bitcoin has closed a post-halving yearly candle as red. Can we finally agree on the fact that the 4-year cycle is dead?
Critics cite several reasons for this shift. One is the diminishing impact of halvings as Bitcoin s issuance rate declines and its total supply approaches 21 million. The recent halving reduced the reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, introducing less new supply pressure than before. Additionally, institutional involvement has altered market behavior. The introduction of U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds ETFs in 2024 and increased corporate treasury exposure have tightened correlations with traditional financial markets.
Macroeconomic factors also played a role. High interest rates, inflation concerns, and slowing economic growth weighed on risk assets throughout 2025. Even supportive policy rhetoric under President Trump could not counteract these global pressures.
Some analysts suggest that Bitcoin s growth may have changed the rhythm of its market cycles. With a market capitalization exceeding 1.7 trillion, price movements might now unfold over longer time frames, leading to the possibility of extended or overlapping cycles rather than a strict four-year pattern.
Despite the unprecedented close in 2025, not all observers view it as a definitive break from the past. Some recall previous instances when Bitcoin was declared finished after unexpected downturns, only to recover later. Others note that delayed responses to halving supply reductions have occurred before, especially when macroeconomic conditions dominate short-term price action.
While 2025 stands out historically, whether it signifies a permanent shift or a temporary anomaly remains uncertain. What is evident is that Bitcoin s price behavior is increasingly influenced by factors beyond just halving schedules. As the debate continues, the four-year cycle may be evolving from a strict rulebook to a more flexible reference point as Bitcoin matures within global financial markets.