Bitcoin s Santa Rally Odds: AI Models Weigh In

As Bitcoin hovers just below 90,000 as the year ends, traders are curious about the possibility of a Santa Rally in 2025. Three leading AI models ChatGPT, Grok, and Gemini were consulted to analyze Bitcoin s price movements and predict a potential late-December rebound.
A Santa Rally typically refers to a period of market strength during the last days of December and the first trading sessions of January. For Bitcoin, this period extends from late December through early January, when liquidity is thin and price movements can be exaggerated.
All three AI models acknowledged that 2025 has been tumultuous for Bitcoin, with significant price swings throughout the year. However, they differed in their expectations for a holiday rally.
Gemini views 2025 as a mountain market with early pressure, a midyear climb to record highs, and a sharp cooldown into Q4. It assigns 55 odds to a Santa Rally scenario, citing renewed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund inflows and improving macro expectations as potential catalysts.
Grok takes a more cautious approach, highlighting compressed volatility and a market still recovering from a double-digit drawdown. It estimates the odds of a meaningful Santa Rally at 30 to 40 , noting that historical December gains for Bitcoin have been mixed without a clear catalyst.
ChatGPT offers a middle-ground perspective, framing 2025 as a year of ups and downs with multiple record attempts followed by digestion phases. It assigns 45 odds to a Santa Rally, acknowledging the potential for a bounce but tempering enthusiasm due to lingering macro pressure.
In summary, the three AI models present a market caught between exhaustion and hesitation. While there are indicators for a potential Santa Rally, such as washed-out sentiment and seasonal tendencies, there are also challenges like unresolved technical resistance and cautious derivatives positioning. The average of the forecasts suggests that a Santa Rally is possible but not guaranteed, and if it occurs, it is likely to be modest rather than spectacular.