6 December 2025

Bitcoin s Struggles: MSTR vs. MARA in the Spotlight
Bitcoin has fallen below 90K again, raising concerns for two of its major holders: Strategy MSTR and Mara Holdings MARA . While both companies are well-known in the bitcoin community and hold significant amounts of BTC, Vaneck s Head of Digital Assets Research, Matthew Sigel, suggests that Mara is in a more precarious position.
MSTR and MARA are worth comparing because both are down 50 in the last 6 weeks,
Sigel wrote.
MARA appears extremely cheap with unusually high short interest. But dig deeper and the picture changes quickly.
The key difference lies in their debt structures. Strategy shifted its focus from business intelligence software to accumulating bitcoin, becoming the largest corporate holder of the cryptocurrency. It issued convertible debt to finance its bitcoin purchases, a strategy that many other companies, including Mara, later adopted.
However, Mara has issued approximately 3.3 billion in convertible bonds. This was not a concern when bitcoin prices were rising, but with bitcoin now at 88K, things are becoming precarious. Despite a 50 drop in share price, Mara s enterprise value has increased due to its debt obligations. This has inflated Mara s mNAV, a metric that compares enterprise value to bitcoin holdings, indicating that investors are paying more for Mara stock than its BTC value justifies.
MARA only screens inexpensive if you ignore its 3.3B face value of convertible debt,
Sigel says.
It s trading at a premium once debt is included.
While Strategy is also trading at a premium, it is significantly lower than Mara s. Bitcoin s recent volatility has put both firms in a tough spot, but Mara s complicated debt structure obscures the relationship between its stock price and bitcoin value. Despite concerns about Strategy s finances, Sigel warns that Mara s situation is more alarming.
MARA is up 30 from the lows and running into resistance so I sold some today and added to MSTR,
Sigel said.
In summary, while both MSTR and MARA face challenges due to bitcoin s price drop, MARA s high level of convertible debt makes it a riskier investment. Investors should consider these factors when evaluating their exposure to these companies in the current market conditions.