Bitcoin s Volatility Compression Signals Potential Market Shift in 2026

Bitcoin is currently experiencing a period of low volatility and tight price range, which could lead to significant market changes in 2026, according to Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone. He noted on January 10 that Bitcoin has been consolidating between 84,000 and 94,000 since November, indicating a potential breakout that may define the market s direction for the upcoming year.
Bitcoin s 84,000- 94,000 cage since November points to an impending breakout for the tip of the risk-asset iceberg. Which direction may define 2026, and I see risks skewed to the downside.
said McGlone.
The analysis highlights Bitcoin s struggle to gain upward momentum and the compressing 30-day volatility approaching multiyear lows. This situation is historically linked to sharp price adjustments rather than prolonged stability. Previous instances of similar volatility compression, such as in 2022, preceded significant downturns in the crypto market.
Risks Appear Downward for Bitcoin
McGlone views this setup as a continuation of his Peak Bubble warnings from 2025, despite Bitcoin reaching around 126,000 in October and a euphoric market sentiment. As we move into early 2026, his focus has shifted to what he terms the Great Reversion, where overvalued assets tend to return to their long-term equilibrium.
The graphic of bitcoin hovering on its 100-week moving average for almost two months, alongside 30-day volatility dropping to multiyear lows, highlights my top theme for 2026: a bull market for volatility.
Within this context, McGlone suggests that Bitcoin s most likely trajectory is towards a 50,000 enduring pivot. However, he also warns of a potential decline to 10,000 if a recession triggers a liquidity crisis similar to that of 2008. He points out the growing divergence between gold and Bitcoin, interpreting gold s rise in early 2026 as a warning sign of deflationary pressures on high-risk assets like crypto.
What is Mike McGlone signaling about bitcoin s current price structure? McGlone warns that BTC s prolonged consolidation between 84,000 and 94,000 with compressed volatility suggests an impending breakout with downside risks dominating for long-term investors.